Scientists predict increase in the prevalence of adult obesity in almost all European countries by 2030

Rates of obesity and overweight in both male and females are projected to increase in almost all countries of Europe by 2030, according to a statistical study from WHO. However, the forecast rates vary throughout the 53 Euro-region countries, with projected male obesity levels ranging from 15% in the Netherlands and Belgium, to 47% in Ireland. The highest obesity prevalence in females was projected in Ireland (47%), and the lowest in Romania (10%).

Dr Laura Webber from the UK Health Forum in London said: "Our study presents a worrying picture of rising obesity across Europe. Policies to reverse this trend are urgently needed."

In almost all countries the proportion of overweight and obesity in males was projected to increase between 2010 and 2030 - to reach 75% in UK, 80% in Czech Republic, Spain and Poland, and 90% in Ireland. The lowest projected levels of overweight and obesity were found in Belgium (44%), and the Netherlands (47%). Similar trends in overweight and obesity were projected in women, with Ireland again showing the greatest proportion (84%).

Similarly, the projected proportions of male obesity were found high in Ireland (58%), Greece (40%), Czech Republic (38%) and UK (35%). The lowest male obesity prevalence was projected in Romania (10%).

In explaining the variations in projected obesity levels between countries the investigators note the possible effect of "economic positioning" and "type of market". The UK and Ireland, where obesity prevalence is among the highest, possess unregulated liberal market economies similar to the US, where the collective actions of big multinational food companies to maximise profit encourages over-consumption. The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Austria possess more regulated market economies.

Commenting on the public health implications of the study, Dr Webber said: "Given the complexity of obesity, the United Nations has called for a whole-of-society approach to preventing obesity and related diseases. Policies that reduce obesity are necessary to avoid premature mortality and prevent economic strain on already overburdened health systems. The WHO has put in place strategies that aim to guide countries towards reducing obesity through the promotion of physical activity and healthy diets."