The demographic situation of Armenia is one of the main challenges that require urgent solutions due to its importance, and an effective, timely, and systematic response to it is one of the most important tasks of the state and society. Rector Armen Muradyan of the Yerevan State Medical University after Mkhitar Heratsi wrote this on Facebook.

He added: "The Heratsi analytical magazine is launching a series of publications dedicated to demographic issues, the aim of which is to contribute to the formation of a common understanding of the relevance of demographic issues among the public.

Birth rate is central to population growth. Recently, a report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs shows that the trend of declining birth rates is global and 2/3 of the world's population lives in countries where the total birth rate is below 2.1, which is considered a simple population the minimum threshold that ensures reproduction. In particular, in the European region, where Armenia is also located, the coefficient is 1.5.

The total birth rate of Armenia is 1.656, it is significantly lower than the simple reproduction level (2.1) for more than two decades, which is dangerous from the point of view of further natural reduction of the country's population. It should be noted that the Armenian coefficient is also lower than the indicators of the same name in the neighboring countries: thus, it is 1.86 in Azerbaijan, and 1.75 in Georgia.

According to the data of the Statistical Committee, 36,585 children were born in Armenia in 2021, which is somewhat more than the data of previous years, but 1,115 less than the number of births in 2017. It should be noted that the negative dynamics of the number of births, except for a short period in the 2000s, has been maintained for more than 30 years, and the number of people born in 1990 exceeded the number of people born in 2021 by about 2.2 times.

According to the forecasts by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, which is considered one of the most authoritative organizations dealing with demographic issues, the number of births in Armenia may decrease to 24,000 in 2050, and the total birth rate will be 1.6.

As a result of the influence of the abovementioned and a number of other factors, the population of our country may be only around 2.6 million inhabitants after 30 years.

Of course, all of these are predictions that are largely based on current developments. And if we take a professional and comprehensive approach to the issue, it is within our power to change the negative developments, turning the coming decades into a period of population growth."