A new large-scale analysis shows that diabetes could cost the global economy up to $47 trillion by 2050 if current growth trends in the disease continue. This conclusion is presented in a study published by experts from the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and the World Health Organization (WHO) in Nature Medicine.

The experts assessed the combined direct and indirect economic consequences of diabetes worldwide. Direct costs include spending on healthcare services, medications, hospitalizations, and the treatment of complications, while indirect costs reflect productivity losses due to disability, premature mortality, reduced work capacity, and employer expenses related to workplace accommodations.

According to the experts’ modeling, the number of people living with diabetes could reach approximately 1.3 billion by 2050 if current trends in disease incidence, rising obesity rates, and population aging persist. This would lead to a substantial increase in healthcare expenditures and economic pressure on countries at all levels of development. The impact could be particularly severe in low- and middle-income countries, where most people with diabetes lack adequate access to treatment.

The authors emphasize that economic losses will accumulate unevenly: a significant share of costs and productivity losses will fall on the working-age population between 20 and 65 years, negatively affecting global labor markets and GDP growth. In addition, diabetes is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular disease, kidney failure, vision impairment, and other serious complications, further increasing the burden on healthcare systems.

The report also notes that current strategies for diabetes prevention and treatment in many countries are insufficient to slow the rise in prevalence or significantly reduce the economic burden. Expanding access to screening, strengthening obesity prevention programs, improving the quality of care for patients, and more broadly integrating preventive measures into healthcare systems could help reduce future losses. However, this will require coordinated efforts at both national and global levels.