New variants of COVID-19 could potentially be localized where they arise. But that would require global collaboration, a new University of Georgia study shows. The study, published in PNAS Nexus, found that standard methods that first assess the severity of a new coronavirus variant are too slow to stop its spread. Next-generation genetic sequencing, however, offers a viable alternative to detecting new variants with enough time to contain variants where they first appear. Genetic sequencing is a process by which researchers can determine the genetic makeup of an organism. In the case of COVID-19, some of the new variants, especially the most important ones, have clear differences in their genetic code. This means that researchers can use the genetic codes to detect new alarming variants. The brief conclusion of the study is that, with the right scale of genetic sequencing, deterring new variants at their source is in principle possible, said Pejman Rohani, co-author of the study and a researcher at the Odum School of Ecology. The concept of using sequencing to detect disease outbreaks is not new. And it's certainly not unique to the coronavirus. The researchers developed a mathematical model that mimics the effects of the emerging variant, tracking its early transmission in the population and its subsequent spread to people traveling from other locations. The scientists also found that travel bans, which did not quarantine all new arrivals until they were confirmed to be free of the virus, were unlikely to prevent the geographic spread of the strain. The study found that, at best, a ban that would reduce the number of people arriving in the population by 99 percent would only delay the variant's arrival by about a month. The challenge is that policymakers have to decide on potential travel restrictions before they know how much of a threat the new variant or disease is, said Toby Brett, lead author of the study and a researcher at the Odum School of Ecology. While this poses a risk of false positives, the researchers believe these informed judgments can be crucial.