A series of studies published in The BMJ suggests that global progress in reducing mortality among newborns, children, and adolescents has slowed considerably since 2015. Researchers warn that, if current trends continue, millions of preventable deaths could occur before the end of the decade.

According to the researchers’ estimates, as many as 9.4 million people could die worldwide by 2030, including approximately 2.5 million children under the age of five, unless health investments and interventions are significantly strengthened.

The analysis covers data from 200 countries between 1990 and 2024. While child mortality has declined substantially over the long term, the pace of improvement varies considerably across regions and age groups.

In 2024, an estimated 4.9 million children under five died globally. Nearly half of these deaths occurred during the neonatal period. The leading causes were complications related to preterm birth, responsible for roughly 860,000 deaths, and respiratory infections, including pneumonia, which accounted for about 660,000 deaths.

Although mortality among children under five declined by approximately 3.9% per year between 2000 and 2015, the rate of decline slowed to just 1.5% annually between 2015 and 2024, indicating a significant loss of momentum.

The highest burden of child mortality remains concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where limited access to healthcare, adequate nutrition, and essential health infrastructure continues to pose major challenges.

Among children and adolescents aged 5 to 19 years, approximately 1.3–1.4 million deaths were recorded in 2024. Infectious diseases and injuries accounted for a substantial proportion of these deaths. Road traffic accidents and malaria were among the leading causes.

Researchers also note that childhood cancers, complications affecting young mothers, and injuries often receive insufficient attention in global health policy despite their significant contribution to adolescent mortality.

The authors emphasize that the findings are based on observational data, statistical modeling, and multiple data sources, all of which involve inherent limitations and uncertainties. Nevertheless, they describe the work as the most comprehensive global assessment of child and adolescent mortality available to date.

The researchers conclude that without greater investment and stronger political commitment, preventable deaths will continue to occur on a large scale. In an accompanying editorial, experts describe the slowdown in progress as an “unfolding tragedy” and call for urgent action, particularly from wealthier nations.