Risk of severe complications reaches 55% within 10 years after type 2 diabetes diagnosis, study finds

After a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, the risk of developing chronic kidney disease or heart failure, or dying, increases significantly over time. This is the conclusion reached by researchers who analyzed data from more than 1.6 million patients in the United States. The study results will be presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD), which will be held in Milan from September 28 to October 2, Medical Xpress reports.

According to the study, the combined risk of developing chronic kidney disease, heart failure, or dying during the first five years after a type 2 diabetes diagnosis is 33% on average. Over 10 years, this figure rises to 55%.

The researchers used data from the CALOR observational research program. The analysis included 1,617,508 patients who were newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between January 1, 2010, and March 31, 2024. The participants' average age was 59, and 51% were women.

Most patients already had other risk factors. Some 72% had dyslipidemia — elevated levels of cholesterol and other fats in the blood — while 68% had high blood pressure. Body mass index was recorded for only 13% of participants, with a median value of 30.9 kg/m².

The study also showed that chronic kidney disease developed more frequently than heart failure after the diagnosis. During the first five years, the probability of developing chronic kidney disease before heart failure was 19%, compared with 8.3% for heart failure occurring first.

At the same time, developing one of these complications substantially increased the risk of developing the other. Among patients who developed heart failure first, the probability of being diagnosed with chronic kidney disease over the following five years was 42%. When chronic kidney disease occurred first, the risk of subsequently developing heart failure within five years was 23%.

“Our findings clearly show how quickly the risk of serious complications associated with type 2 diabetes increases over time,” said Professor Naveed Sattar of the University of Glasgow, one of the study's co-leaders.

According to him, the combination of obesity, abnormal lipid metabolism, high blood pressure, and elevated blood sugar damages blood vessels and vital organs.

Follow NEWS.am Medicine on Facebook and Twitter