Nature Medicine: Cervical Cancer Deaths Projected to Rise by 39.3% by 2050

According to the researchers' projections, deaths from the disease will increase by 39.3%.

According to the Nature Medicine report, in 2018, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) called on the international community to eliminate cervical cancer entirely, marking the first initiative of its kind in medical history. The call was supported by all 194 UN member states. However, the researchers' analysis indicates that current efforts are insufficient.

An international team of medical researchers reached this conclusion while preparing the latest report as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project. Since 1990, the project has been conducted by the WHO, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Its goal is to track trends affecting global health.

WHO experts, together with colleagues from leading national research and medical institutions, including specialists from HSE University and Sechenov University, examined statistics from relevant medical authorities in 204 countries covering the period from 1990 to 2023. They analyzed the data to assess global trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality and develop projections.

The analysis found that the incidence rate remained largely unchanged over this period, while the average mortality rate declined by 17%, largely due to expanded vaccination, screening and prevention efforts. Around 54% of cervical cancer cases were diagnosed in low- and middle-income countries. These countries also have the highest per capita incidence rates, a trend linked to inadequate healthcare infrastructure.

According to the researchers, approximately 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths from cervical cancer were recorded worldwide in 2023. By 2050, the annual number of new cases is projected to reach 1.08 million, while deaths are expected to rise to 522,000. The largest increase in incidence is anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa.

The researchers conclude that these projections highlight the need to intensify vaccination efforts among women and develop new strategies to combat the disease.