The number of people living with type 1 diabetes worldwide could increase by nearly one-third, from 9.4 million in 2025 to 12.1 million by 2049. At the same time, the number of new cases diagnosed each year is projected to rise by 14%, from 530,000 to 605,000, according to News Medical and Live Science.
The estimates will be presented at the annual congress of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD), which will take place in Milan from September 28 to October 2. The forecast was developed using the DIAMOND-T1D model under the leadership of Professor Anders Green of the Steno Diabetes Center in Denmark.
The most noticeable increase in the number of people living with type 1 diabetes is expected in high-income countries. In the UK, the number could rise by about one-third, from 313,725 to 420,551. In the United States, the total is projected to increase by nearly 562,000, from 1.49 million to 2.06 million. In Italy, the number of people with type 1 diabetes is expected to grow by 16%, from 205,499 to 239,145.
In relative terms, however, the increase is expected to be much greater in low-income countries. In Tanzania, for example, the number of new cases diagnosed each year could almost double, from 3,275 to 6,177, while the total number of people living with type 1 diabetes could rise from 19,101 to 39,673.
Researchers attribute the high incidence in developed countries to a combination of genetic factors, environmental influences, and more effective disease detection made possible by well-developed healthcare systems.
In poorer countries, the rise in prevalence is expected to be driven largely by improved access to insulin, blood-glucose monitoring, and medical care, which will allow people with type 1 diabetes to survive longer.
The DIAMOND-T1D model takes into account not only incidence data and population age structures but also historical access to insulin in different countries. It can estimate incidence, prevalence, and mortality from type 1 diabetes between 1900 and 2050. The model has been validated using data from national registries in Denmark and Scotland.
According to the researchers’ projections, the number of deaths from all causes among people with type 1 diabetes will also increase, from 361,383 in 2025 to 537,621 in 2049. About 42% of new cases in 2025 occurred among people under the age of 20.
The researchers emphasize that epidemiological data on type 1 diabetes remain particularly limited in low- and middle-income countries. In their view, the projections highlight the need to expand access to insulin, blood-glucose monitoring technologies, and high-quality healthcare, especially in countries with limited resources.
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