Scientists Develop a New Model to Predict the Risk of Tooth Decay in Children

Scientists at Saint Petersburg State University (SPbSU) have developed a multifactor mathematical model that can predict the risk of early childhood caries and help create personalized prevention strategies before the first symptoms of the disease appear. The university’s press service told TASS.

“Doctors only need to enter basic medical history data about the child into the system. The algorithm then immediately assesses the impact of social, hygiene, and dietary factors and calculates an individual risk forecast. Based on these calculations, a personalized prevention plan is developed, including dietary recommendations, appropriate oral hygiene procedures, and a schedule of visits to specialists. Implementing this comprehensive program in healthcare could help curb the rise in caries rates at the earliest stages,” the statement said.

Caries is one of the most common diseases worldwide, affecting between 17% and 94% of children. Advanced tooth decay not only reduces quality of life but can also negatively affect physical development: children with a high burden of caries may lag behind their peers in height and weight and may also have lower lung capacity.

According to the university’s press service, the researchers analyzed the epidemiological situation in St. Petersburg. They found that despite generally healthy teeth during the first year of life, caries is diagnosed in one in three children in the city by the age of three, while by age six, the prevalence of caries in primary teeth exceeds 60%.

Based on questionnaires completed by parents, the SPbSU researchers identified the main modifiable risk factors contributing to enamel deterioration during the first years of life. These included starting oral hygiene late — after the age of one — breastfeeding for longer than 12 months, nighttime feeding after six months of age, particularly with sweet foods, and introducing complementary foods after nine months. Other factors associated with increased risk included relying exclusively on homemade infant foods or purées, choosing fluoride-free toothpaste, and the absence of adult supervision during tooth brushing.

As part of the study, the researchers also conducted a chemical analysis of baby foods. They found that both commercially produced and homemade complementary foods examined in the study could contribute to the development of caries because of excessive carbohydrate content and insufficient levels of certain micronutrients. Fruit purées for babies were considered particularly risky because of their extremely low pH and high sugar concentrations. In contrast, meat- and vegetable-based purées had a more balanced composition that could support enamel mineralization.

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